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Odds on success
Written by Nathan on December 31, 2008 at 10:35 am from Prologue.
Written by Nathan on December 31, 2008 at 10:35 am from Prologue.
I asked my dad to predict my chances for success last night. He thought for a minute, then said “None.” I think that was at least a wee bit discouraging, so I’m opening up the question. Anyone want to give me better odds on success?
In the interest of full disclosure, I have been doing cardio workouts at the YMCA for the past few months. I haven’t run a timed mile in months, but the last time I started running I managed to get my mile from 8 minutes on first run to just below 6 minute a couple of weeks later. Granted, that just about killed me, but before I stopped running my heart rate never really exceeding 170 bpm.
The time to beat, after further investigation, may be a little slower than 18 minutes. I’m looking for Bush’s best time in print and the best I’ve seen so far is just slower than 19 minutes.
So anyone want to predict success? Right now it’s just my wife who thinks I can do it.
I think there are times when qualifications matter, and other times when determination is far more likely to tip the scale. you are making a public declaration that you are going to do this, and i think that motivation will push you harder than you might want to push yourself normally. are you determined? then i think you stand a good chance.
Nathan,
Love the idea!
18 minutes is going to be tough, but I am rooting for you.
I am doing something similar for January. I am challenging anyone that I know that I can do more push ups then them by the end of the month. My goal is 100 at least (currently I could only do 5).
Looking forward to the updates.
This remains a great idea, however, I’ve run a number of 5Ks and… I’m with your dad… chances of success are zero.
Your success will exist in the derived health benefits (assuming you don’t die)… and the box of discipline you’ve shoehorned yourself into. It’s a worthy effort, for sure… and I don’t think success should be measured only in beating Bush’s time.
Good luck… I love the idea. I wish you could add a social element to the project (i.e. people can originate their own month-long efforts, and post their updates for others to track – via yearofmonths.com).
P.S. The leading for all of the text on the page is off in IE … at least for me. Not sure why…